Risk factors
It's hard to predict the long-term consequences of each decision. One tool that helps is the idea of a risk factor, used a lot in medicine.
A risk factor doesn't guarantee the problem will happen, but it makes it more likely. Identifying the risk factors for s-risks helps us know where to act.
Factor 1: advanced technology
Many s-risks are only possible because of new technologies:
- digital minds: if it becomes possible to create beings that can feel inside computers, they could suffer in gigantic numbers, especially if nobody takes them into account;
- space colonization: it could multiply the number of sentient beings, who would be subject both to the decisions of those in control and to the natural processes of new environments.
But watch out for being against technology
Technology can also help reduce suffering. It's a tool: it will be used for the goals of whoever controls it.
Maybe some technologies are so risky that it would be better never to use them. But that doesn't justify being against all technological progress.
Other factors
The author also mentions other risk factors, like a lack of consideration for sentient beings, conflicts between powerful groups, and people with cruel intentions having a lot of power.
In short
- Risk factors make s-risks more likely.
- Digital minds and space colonization are examples of risky technologies.
- Technology can also help; the problem is the values of the people using it.