Predicting the future is hard
A common objection to worrying about s-risks is: "We can't predict long-term consequences." One tool that helps is identifying risk factors, as is done in medicine.
Some risk factors for s-risks
- Disregard for nonhuman beings: if people don't care about animals, it's easier to create new ways of exploiting them.
- Disregard for nonbiological beings: if digital minds that can feel appear in the future, and nobody cares about them, they could suffer on an enormous scale.
- Demand for products that harm sentient beings: as long as there's demand, there will be production.
- Human expansion and more technological power: more power can multiply both good and bad.
- Technology advancing faster than morality: we gain power before learning to use it well.
When several factors come together
Just as in medicine, disasters are more likely when several risk factors show up at the same time.
In short
- Risk factors help us think about the future even when we're uncertain.
- Disregarding beings that can feel is one of the main factors.
- Technological power without moral progress is dangerous.