What s-risks are
Today, many animals suffer in ways that didn't exist in the past, like in factory farming. Something similar, or much worse, could appear in the future.
S-risks and x-risks
- X-risks are risks of humanity going extinct.
- S-risks are risks of enormous suffering.
They're not the same: humanity could survive and still cause a lot of suffering.
How to measure how serious a risk is
How serious an s-risk is gets calculated by multiplying how bad the scenario would be by the chance that it happens. The result is called expected disvalue. So even an unlikely scenario can be very serious, if it's gigantic.
Examples of s-risks
- spreading factory farming to more countries and species;
- exploiting insects on a massive scale;
- creating digital minds that can feel, with no protection;
- taking ecosystems full of suffering to other planets.
Substratism
Just as speciesism discriminates by species, substratism would discriminate against beings that can feel just because they aren't made of flesh and blood.
In short
- S-risks are risks of gigantic suffering in the future.
- How serious a risk is equals its size times its probability.
- Substratism would mean discriminating against beings that can feel because they aren't organic.